Tag Archive for Euro

EUR/USD – it looks like we have 2-way risk again…

Last Friday’s employment report from the US was a lot weaker than market consensus with only 126,000 jobs created. Up till that point, it looked as though any rally in EUR/USD was a selling opportunity for the inevitable push towards parity – a level not seen for many years. The weak employment report caused EUR/USD to briefly spike above 1.10 and some market commentators appear to think that the Fed will now delay a rate hike until the back-end of the year, which may give a softer tone to the US Dollar.

Is the strong dollar causing a drag on US economic performance ? That’s difficult to say, but the main trading partners of the US are all still in easing mode and now that a US rate hike seems to have been kicked down the road, there should be good 2-way interest around the 1.10 level.

EUR/CHF positions – the problem with VaR…..

There are many talented, mathematical minds in the Risk function of banks and other financial institutions, and they are experts in devising models to manage risk by predicting possible market behaviour. It appears that a PhD in Astrophysics is much more useful in a Risk department than experience of how markets actually behave in the real world. The problem has always been that the models fail regularly, with spectacular consequences. No model can allow for the huge vacuum that existed after the SNB pulled their bid at 1.2000.

The most widely used risk measure is Value at Risk (VaR) and the amount of “value” (read potential loss) allocated to EUR/CHF positions (for example), when combined with some measure of historical volatility of that currency pair, will determine the maximum allowable position size that the trader can hold.

The problem with this approach is that as historical volatility falls (as it did all through 2014 in EUR/CHF) position sizes can be increased whilst still staying within the allocated VaR limit. In layman’s terms, the trader says to himself “this currency pair is not moving much, so I can take a bigger and bigger position and STILL stay within my VaR limits”.

Let’s hope that this mythical trader was long of Swiss francs last week……

EUR/USD – Will it be different this time ?

The all-time low of EUR/USD was seen in Q4 2000 at 0.8230 and the all-time high was 1.6038 in Q3 2008. Since then, there have been 4 assaults on the 50% retracement level of 1.2134. The first time this happened, the move was rejected (approximately 8 years after the low), but the next three times (Q2 2010, Q3 2012 and most recently, this month) have seen 1.2134 breached, but we have never followed through towards the 61.8% retracement level of 1.1213.

Will it be any different this time ? IMF data would suggest that here does not appear to be much of an appetite to buy Euros at these lower levels, and with the prospect of Draghi introducing QE very soon, and Greece’s membership of the EU under threat, it would appear that short EUR positions will be held for the time being. Having said that, it pays to be careful, when it all looks too easy !