The all-time low of EUR/USD was seen in Q4 2000 at 0.8230 and the all-time high was 1.6038 in Q3 2008. Since then, there have been 4 assaults on the 50% retracement level of 1.2134. The first time this happened, the move was rejected (approximately 8 years after the low), but the next three times (Q2 2010, Q3 2012 and most recently, this month) have seen 1.2134 breached, but we have never followed through towards the 61.8% retracement level of 1.1213.
Will it be any different this time ? IMF data would suggest that here does not appear to be much of an appetite to buy Euros at these lower levels, and with the prospect of Draghi introducing QE very soon, and Greece’s membership of the EU under threat, it would appear that short EUR positions will be held for the time being. Having said that, it pays to be careful, when it all looks too easy !